A Simple Model to Help Gauge Kickstarter Preparedness
Knowing if and when you are ready to launch is one of the hardest questions to answer as a new creator.
A lot can change mid campaign – a great spotlight from a reviewer can boost your numbers, surprise media coverage can bolster your ranks, or conversions might come in below expectations.
But, that doesn’t mean we can go in without any expectations for how our campaign will fund.
Which is why I was excited when I saw this simple excel model from the team over at Crowdfunding Nerds.
Kickstarter Success Calculator
[Download the spreadsheet from Crowdfunding Nerds]
The Crowdfunding Nerds Calculator estimates backers based on newsletter subscriptions. At a high level they estimate that 10-30% of newsletter subscribers convert to backers. And, that KS and organic leads are ~40% of the campaign (4 KS leads per 6 creator generated leads).
Note: at the time of publication the formula in the CFN model assumes that KS brings on 28% of organic lead traffic, rather than 40%. To correct this, make sure cells E13, E21 & E29 equal the cell above them divided by 6 then times 4.
Strengths & Weaknesses
The model is an intuitive, tested, and simplified way of viewing campaign preparedness.
In short, it is a good starting place. And, through the lens of campaigns driven by email listserv building, and email marketing, it is likely a fairly good approximation of the range of outcomes (the Crowdfunding Nerds team has meaningful experience – so I am inclined to trust their assumptions).
But, by the same token, the model strengths are also it’s weaknesses. It does not incorporate non-listserv driven organic traffic from social media, review campaigns, or media coverage.
Nut Hunt backers by traffic source
Note: My gut is that the 40% Kickstarter driven traffic estimate, is relatively safe regardless of the source of initial leads. Our campaign Nut Hunt had low e-mail listserv driven traffic, but saw a ~6:4 ratio of direct traffic driven pledges, versus backers who navigated from Kickstarter’s discover pages (at this point I don’t have good data on where these backers originally saw our campaign).
The model also fails to account for momentum or campaign size. Fast and high levels of funding garner more external media attention – are more likely to be featured in articles and Kickstarter round ups.
While this traffic is also direct-and-organic, it is distinct from the day-1 traffic driven by email lists, and social media following.
Overall, the model is a great place to start. It’s easily modifiable to incorporate traffic from non-listserv sources, and can set some baseline expectations for how and when to hit that launch button.
What key metrics do you look at to gauge your preparedness to go live?
